Impact of ocean warming on sustainable fisheries management informs the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries

Acknowledgements Serpetti N., Heymans J.J., and Burrows M.T. were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under the Marine Ecosystems Research Programme (MERP) (grant No. NE/L003279/1). Baudron A. and Fernandes, P.G. were founded by Horizon 2020 European research projects MareFrame (grant No. 613571) and ClimeFish (grant No. 677039). Payne, B.L. was founded by the Natural Environment Research Council and Department for Environment under the ‘Velocity of Climate Change’ (grant No. NE/J024082/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Polynomial conjunctive query rewriting under unary inclusion dependencies

Ontology-based data access (OBDA) is widely accepted as an important ingredient of the new generation of information systems. In the OBDA paradigm, potentially incomplete relational data is enriched by means of ontologies, representing intensional knowledge of the application domain. We consider the problem of conjunctive query answering in OBDA. Certain ontology languages have been identified as FO-rewritable (e.g., DL-Lite and sticky-join sets of TGDs), which means that the ontology can be incorporated into the user's query, thus reducing OBDA to standard relational query evaluation. However, all known query rewriting techniques produce queries that are exponentially large in the size of the user's query, which can be a serious issue for standard relational database engines. In this paper, we present a polynomial query rewriting for conjunctive queries under unary inclusion dependencies. On the other hand, we show that binary inclusion dependencies do not admit polynomial query rewriting algorithms

The skewed weak lensing likelihood: why biases arise, despite data and theory being sound

We derive the essentials of the skewed weak lensing likelihood via a simple hierarchical forward model. Our likelihood passes four objective and cosmology-independent tests which a standard Gaussian likelihood fails. We demonstrate that sound weak lensing data are naturally biased low, since they are drawn from a skewed distribution. This occurs already in the framework of Lambda cold dark matter. Mathematically, the biases arise because noisy two-point functions follow skewed distributions. This form of bias is already known from cosmic microwave background analyses, where the low multipoles have asymmetric error bars. Weak lensing is more strongly affected by this asymmetry as galaxies form a discrete set of shear tracer particles, in contrast to a smooth shear field. We demonstrate that the biases can be up to 30 per cent of the standard deviation per data point, dependent on the properties of the weak lensing survey and the employed filter function. Our likelihood provides a versatile framework with which to address this bias in future weak lensing analyses

Ecosystem uptake and transfer of Sellafield-derived radiocarbon (14C). Part 1. The Irish Sea

Ecosystem uptake and transfer processes of Sellafield-derived radiocarbon (14C) within the Irish Sea were examined. Highly variable activities in sediment, seawater and biota indicate complex 14C dispersal and uptake dynamics. All east basin biota exhibited 14C enrichments above ambient background while most west basin biota had 14C activities close to background, although four organisms including two slow-moving species were significantly enriched. The western Irish Sea gyre is a suggested pathway for transfer of 14C to the west basin and retention therein. Despite ongoing Sellafield 14C discharges, organic sediments near Sellafield were significantly less enriched than associated benthic organisms. Rapid scavenging of labile, 14C-enriched organic material by organisms and mixing to depth of 14C-enriched detritus arriving at the sediment/water interface are proposed mechanisms to explain this. All commercially important fish, crustaceans and molluscs showed 14C enrichments above background; however, the radiation dose from their consumption is extremely low and radiologically insignificant

HMcode-2020::Improved modelling of non-linear cosmological power spectra with baryonic feedback

We present an updated version of the HMcode augmented halo model that can be used to make accurate predictions of the non-linear matter power spectrum over a wide range of cosmologies. Major improvements include modelling of BAO damping in the power spectrum and an updated treatment of massive neutrinos. We fit our model to simulated power spectra and show that we can match the results with an RMS error of 2.5 per cent across a range of cosmologies, scales $k < 10\,h\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, and redshifts $z<2$. The error rarely exceeds 5 per cent and never exceeds 16 per cent. The worst-case errors occur at $z\simeq2$, or for cosmologies with unusual dark-energy equations of state. This represents a significant improvement over previous versions of HMcode, and over other popular fitting functions, particularly for massive-neutrino cosmologies with high neutrino mass. We also present a simple halo model that can be used to model the impact of baryonic feedback on the power spectrum. This six-parameter physical model includes gas expulsion by AGN feedback and encapsulates star formation. By comparing this model to data from hydrodynamical simulations we demonstrate that the power spectrum response to feedback is matched at the $<1$ per cent level for $z<1$ and $k<20\,h\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$. We also present a single-parameter variant of this model, parametrized in terms of feedback strength, which is only slightly less accurate. We make code available for our non-linear and baryon models at https://github.com/alexander-mead/HMcode and it is also available within CAMB and soon within CLASS.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 4 appendices; v2 - matches accepted version, new appendix with comparisons between HMcode and 6 different emulator

Accumulation of Sellafield-derived radiocarbon (14C) in Irish Sea and West of Scotland intertidal shells and sediments

The nuclear energy industry produces radioactive waste at various stages of the fuel cycle. In the United Kingdom, spent fuel is reprocessed at the Sellafield facility in Cumbria on the north west coast of England. Waste generated at the site comprises a wide range of radionuclides including radiocarbon (14C) which is disposed of in various forms including highly soluble inorganic carbon within the low level liquid radioactive effluent, via pipelines into the Irish Sea. This 14C is rapidly incorporated into the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) reservoir and marine calcifying organisms, e.g. molluscs, readily utilise DIC for shell formation. This study investigated a number of sites located in Irish Sea and West of Scotland intertidal zones. Results indicate 14C enrichment above ambient background levels in shell material at least as far as Port Appin, 265 km north of Sellafield. Of the commonly found species (blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), common cockle (Cerastoderma edule) and common periwinkle (Littorina littorea)), mussels were found to be the most highly enriched in 14C due to the surface environment they inhabit and their feeding behaviour. Whole mussel shell activities appear to have been decreasing in response to reduced discharge activities since the early 2000s but in contrast, there is evidence of continuing enrichment of the carbonate sediment component due to in-situ shell erosion, as well as indications of particle transport of fine 14C-enriched material close to Sellafield

Modeling Small Scale Impacts of Multi-Purpose Platforms: An Ecosystem Approach

Aquaculture and marine renewable energy are two expanding sectors of the Blue Economy in Europe. Assessing the long-term environmental impacts in terms of eutrophication and noise is a priority for both the EU Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and cumulative impacts will be important for the Maritime Spatial Planning under the Integrated Maritime Policy. With the constant expansion of aquaculture production, it is expected that farms might be established further offshore in more remote areas, as high-energy conditions offer an opportunity to generate more power locally using Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) devices. A proposed solution is the co-location of MRE devices and aquaculture systems using Multi-Purpose Platforms (MPPs) comprising offshore wind turbines (OWTs) that will provide energy for farm operations as well as potentially shelter the farm. Disentangling the impacts, conflicts and synergies of MPP elements on the surrounding marine ecosystem is challenging. Here we created a high-resolution spatiotemporal Ecospace model of the West of Scotland, in order to assess impacts of a simple MPP configuration on the surrounding ecosystem and how these impacts can cascade through the food web. The model evaluated the following specific ecosystem responses: (i) top-down control pathways due to distribution changes among top-predators (harbor porpoise, gadoids and seabirds) driven by attraction to the farming sites and/or repulsion/killing due to OWT operations; (ii) bottom-up control pathways due to salmon farm activity providing increasing benthic enrichment predicated by a fish farm particle dispersal model, and sediment nutrient fluxes to the water column by early diagenesis of organic matter (recycled production). Weak responses of the food-web were found for top-down changes, whilst the results showed high sensitivity to increasing changes of bottom-up drivers that cascaded through the food-web from primary producers and detritus to pelagic and benthic consumers, respectively. We assessed the sensitivity of the model to each of these impacts and the cumulative effects on the ecosystem, discuss the capabilities and limitations of the Ecospace modeling approach as a potential tool for marine spatial planning and the impact that these results could have for the Blue Economy and the EU’s New Green Deal

Very weak lensing in the CFHTLS Wide: Cosmology from cosmic shear in the linear regime

We present an exploration of weak lensing by large-scale structure in the linear regime, using the third-year (T0003) CFHTLS Wide data release. Our results place tight constraints on the scaling of the amplitude of the matter power spectrum sigma_8 with the matter density Omega_m. Spanning 57 square degrees to i'_AB = 24.5 over three independent fields, the unprecedented contiguous area of this survey permits high signal-to-noise measurements of two-point shear statistics from 1 arcmin to 4 degrees. Understanding systematic errors in our analysis is vital in interpreting the results. We therefore demonstrate the percent-level accuracy of our method using STEP simulations, an E/B-mode decomposition of the data, and the star-galaxy cross correlation function. We also present a thorough analysis of the galaxy redshift distribution using redshift data from the CFHTLS T0003 Deep fields that probe the same spatial regions as the Wide fields. We find sigma_8(Omega_m/0.25)^0.64 = 0.785+-0.043 using the aperture-mass statistic for the full range of angular scales for an assumed flat cosmology, in excellent agreement with WMAP3 constraints. The largest physical scale probed by our analysis is 85 Mpc, assuming a mean redshift of lenses of 0.5 and a LCDM cosmology. This allows for the first time to constrain cosmology using only cosmic shear measurements in the linear regime. Using only angular scales theta> 85 arcmin, we find sigma_8(Omega_m/0.25)_lin^0.53 = 0.837+-0.084, which agree with the results from our full analysis. Combining our results with data from WMAP3, we find Omega_m=0.248+-0.019 and sigma_8 = 0.771+-0.029.Comment: 23 pages, 16 figures (A&A accepted

Strategic foresight paper on AtlantOS in the European context: Towards strengthened coordination and governance of ocean observing systems

This paper looks at the marine science-policy landscape and brings together different policy discussions aimed at the development of a European Ocean Observing System, in the context of AtlantOS and how this relates to wider Atlantic and global policy drivers and existing and emerging wider ocean observation coordination. It has a European focus, looking at proposed mechanisms and components for ocean coordination and governance and the potential contribution of existing organizations and initiatives. The report serves as a reference document for, and contribution to, the European Strategy on Atlantic Ocean Observing and international BluePrint for an integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System